The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Explain that a little bit for us, Luke, and just how dire the situation is for the groundwater in the region. The dam stopped up the Colorado River, creating Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the United States. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. While levels are on a long downward trend, they fluctuate with the seasons. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. The dropping water and the reservoirs expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. And that sponge is very dry right now, and its sucking up all of that water before it can be used as water supply. If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. Monsoon rains didnt arrive. Newsweek previously. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. The Southwest United States is wrapping up an abnormally dry winter. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. He says such measures can help, for sure. The increase in temperatures means the atmosphere is thirstier. Lake Powell is the town's lifeline. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. These reservoirs are as empty now as when they started filling Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s, said John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexicos water resources program. In addition, Mankin said, interventions like the Flaming Gorge release treat the western U.S.s 20-year drought as a localized phenomenon rather than a regional one. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. LUKE RUNYON: So in the Colorado River basin, a lot of the management of the river is tied to the level of its two largest reservoirs. The basin is made up of portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. Complicating matters are the ongoing talks on allocation between the seven states on the Colorado River, the source of the lakes waters. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. JOHN DANKOSKY: Well, given all these users, all these various jurisdictions, are there competitions for what water is remaining? What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. And that group includes the Navajo Nation, the Southern Ute tribe, the Quechan Indian tribe. In the second stage of Fill Mead First, the reservoir's level would near 3,374 feet, near the river outlet works. Water levels dipped below 3,525 feet the last major milestone before a serious threat to hydropower generation at the Glen Canyon Dam. Mountain snowpack is generally below average for this time of year, so that boost may not be as big as it has been in years past. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . Creosote is one I personally like to call it the cockroach of the vegetation world because pretty much nothing kills creosote. What is the current status of Lake Powell? Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. This cookie is used for load balancing purposes. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. At the time of publication, Lake Powell was sitting at only 3,529 feet only four feet above this important threshold. Its also in the groundwater, something that you cant see. Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely headed to their lowest levelssince they were filled decades ago. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to be used to launch boats now having a 50 foot drop between the end of the ramp and the water. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. They werent able to come up with an agreement. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. The second largest reservoir in the U.S. by total capacity after Lake Mead, Lake Powell spans the Utah/Arizona border, and is an artificial lake created from damming the Colorado River. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.. VigLink sets this cookie to track the user behaviour and also limit the ads displayed, in order to ensure relevant advertising. And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. Lakes Mead and Powell. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. I would say less than 20 percent, Ostler said. The story has been updated to reflect this information. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. Those with money will move and those without will suffer and most likely die. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. You have permission to edit this article. Thousands of Tucson homes use 250% more water than you. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. More than four scientific studieshave pinned a large part of the decline on human climate change. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. However, he said the biggest impact will be the water. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. According to nonprofit news organization CalMatters, California, which receives the most water from the river at 4.4 million acre-feetmore than one-third of the river's supplyhas not yet been impacted by the cuts. The nation's second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. Share on Facebook; . And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. What is the long-term future of Lake Powell? Lake Powell is in crisis. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. So Luke, I dont know is this all just because of climate change? This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. But a new study warns that the lake could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005. What would constitute that? The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, and this is a question that has been of intense interest to climate scientists. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. JOHN DANKOSKY: Local science stories of national significance. What does the forecast look like? Contact reporter Tony Davis at tdavis@tucson.com or 806-7746. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. Lake Mead's decline is not happening in isolation, but is the result of a two-decade drought hitting the western U.S. and causing critical water shortages on the Colorado River. "The federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through, Sorensen said. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. Give us an idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in the basins reservoirs right now. The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. Credit: Alex Hager. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. You cant do that with groundwater. The nations second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. These cookies do not allow the tracking of navigation on other websites and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties. Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center Economist Lucas Bair previously told Newsweek that hydroelectricity, powered by the water, is a cheaper, cleaner form of energy. what little rain and snow has fallen dries . If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. water level is too low to flow downstream, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Balken said depositing the lake's water in Lake Mead, which isn't made out of sandstone,. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. He has mostly covered environmental stories since 2005, focusing on water supplies, climate change, the Rosemont Mine and the endangered jaguar. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. And there is some evidence that this dry period would have happened without our greenhouse gas emissions. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. Many of the. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. . California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. That is incorrect. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. This cookie is set by the provider Akamai Bot Manager. And what does that mean for the users on the river? If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. The finding is ominous for the region's future drinking-water supply. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. They both use water from the Colorado River. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. And its split into two watersheds. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. Just as water demand is going up, the supply is going down. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. He covers the Colorado River basin. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. Lake Mead's water levels were 1,047.38 feet as of February 23. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. 3. The year as I write is now 2018. But while Lake Mead . It survives, she said. This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. Ultimately, experts said the future of the lake must be addressed in a way that creates the certainty it was intended to provide. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. how to shoot rubber bullets, To meet the area ca n't thrive: //www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/ Powell was sitting at only feet. To cut Colorado River and Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination water., scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly charts in parts of temperature... 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